Game starts.. Amit Shah to visit TN;
Will his magic wand weed out Dravidian wastes?!
– T.S.Venkatesh
After Bihar’s NDA victory, Home Minster, fondly called as “Chanakya“ Amit Shah sets his eyes on Tamil Nadu before setting put in West Bengal to ensure BJP victory in the ensuing assembly polls slated to be held in another five months’ time.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah will arrive Tamil Nadu on 20th for a two-day visit to initiate and firm up alliance talks, meet the functionaries to gather the ground realities and to device strategies to win more seats to play a king maker role or to form next government led by or part of the NDA alliance to end the anti-Hindu, pro minority Dravidian parties’ s supremacy in the Tamil Nadu.it is highly expected that he would meet Rajini Kant on 21st November , who has been dilly dallying in announcing his political party, to impress upon him to take a bold move. In that eventuality, Rajini Kant’s role will be crucial in splitting the Hindu and neutral votes that goes to DMK and AIADMK.
The announcement of his visit followed by BJP’s stunning victory in Bihar had sent shivers among the Dravidian, left, minority outfits. By accident or coincidence on the same day, the estranged son of DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi’s estranged son M K Azhagiri plans to consult his followers about the next stage of political activities.
If he takes any move that would queer the pitches of DMK which is day dreaming of capturing power by its divide and rule and minority appeasement , anti-Hindu policies. Madurai strong man Azhagiri has been sidelined since Karunanidhi days to ensure a smooth ascension for his second son M K Stalin who now became its Chief after his demise.
Azhagiri, who was expelled from the party ,has been in a political wilderness since then. He veiled influence in Madurai and southern districts of the state. Azhagiri’s closeness to Rajini Kant would be significant in taking away the DMK votes. It is reliably learnt that Azhagiri has already put his foot down to launch a new political party irrespective of Rajini kant’s decision. On 20th itself he may announce his new political party after consultation with his followers. Azhagiri posted in his Face book about his imminent political intentions to boost up his cadre’s Morales.
People from DMK and other parties, film personalities are joining BJP. The latest is the joining a large diocese headed by Bishop Dr. Johnson in BJP in Chennai under the leadership of L Murugan.
With young dynamic leaders like ex IPS officer Annamalai, L Murugan, film personalities including Kushboo Sundar have made a tremendous fillip to the party’s growth in TN attracting more and more people at rural parts. According to BJP sources a few trouble makers, deadwoods and who are playing a spoiling sport have been packed off from the state with party assignments or elevated to national level. BJP national women wing chief Vanathi Srinivasan said “ if Azhagiri launches a new political party, she would welcome it and will support it. She predicted that after Amit Shah’s visit, the political arena in the state will sea change”.
Till the time of time of writing this article, the BJP is part of the AIADMK led alliance. Of late, the ruling party is has been targeting against BJP and its leader by filing cases one after another and tell- tale signs of friction between them.
Particularly, it used police machinery to stop the BJP’s one month long Vetri Vel yatra to meet and interact with people at the gross root level and to consolidate Hindu vote bank. The yatra that begun on 6th November ends on 6th December at Thiruchendur covering all six abodes of Lord Muruga. The state government has singled out BJP and arresting after seeing rousing welcome for its yatra. It even banned meeting, protests, and rallies in the state.
Most of cadres and people in the state are of the opinion that BJP should contest alone or lead an alliance under its leadership. They do not want tie up with both Dravidian majors. There is a vacuum in the state after the demise of charismatic leader J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi. AIADMK top leaders feel “if we align with BJP, their anti-Hindu actions in the past would eclipse. They would be accepted absolving of their sins to Hindu majority all these years in the name of minority appeasement”.
Most believe there exists a tactical understanding between AIADMK and DMK in not allowing the BJP to set its foot in TN soil.
BJP leaders point out that most of the AIADMK present and past ministers are facing corruption charges which the rival DMK has been capitalizing to damage the AIADMK. Most believe there exists a tactical understanding between AIADMK and DMK in not allowing the BJP to set its foot in TN soil. People are fed up with the AIADMK regime in dealing with the pandemic Covid 19.
Initially it blamed Tabligh Jamaath, the main source for sudden spread Corona but after opposition from them, the government changed it as a ‘ single source’ and Delihi as a ‘single place’. In the casualty list their name and community were not given. It allowed them to do what they wanted disobeying lockdown norms.
Chennai based Data Analyst and Chartered Account Sriram Seshadri said “ way is cleared for Annamalai in Kongu belt with Vanathi Srinivasan was elevated and CP Radhakrishnan was made Kerala party in-charge. BJP now need to focus on three more dominant cast leaders. Thevar, Nadar and Vanniars. The party needs to find vibrant, young new faces like Annamalai for these three castelines. For Dalit who have over 21per cent vote share in TN, party chief L Murugan is there already there. In spite of all these, BJP can expect a maximum vote share of 6 to 7 percent in the 2021 May assembly elections.
If Rajini extends support this percentage may up by another two to three percent. With these all, BJP won’t be able to win a seat unless form a good alliance.
If Rajini extends support this percentage may up by another two to three percent. With these all, BJP won’t be able to win a seat unless form a good alliance. Communists, Congress, MNM and NTK totally ruled out. DMK including VCK, MDMK is still possible and they are willing. But it would ruin the chances of BJP totally. AIADMK can be an option but should be seriously considered.
Siding with AIADMK with 27 to 29 per cent vote share (even TTV Dhinkaran faction split some share) as it has a statewide presence. PMK’s options are limited because they want a deputy CM post. Both DMK and AIADMK have said firm no to this demand. Left with no option, PMK at the last minute try to join BJP front (it has 7 percent vote share). The biggest risk it has a vote base only in northern districts. Vijaya Kant’s DMDK ( 5 percent vote share) will join BJP front which is most accommodative and provide monetary support. Ailing Vijayakant can’t move around to campaign”.
Explaining further he said , “DMK feels Congress is a dead weight after Bihar and the recent bi-poll results. It may either join AIADMK or Kamal Hassan’s MNM. As a national party, it has a vote share of 6 to 9 percent. Puthiya Tamizhagam led by dalit leader Krishnasamy and G K Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress will be with the BJP and have limited vote share contribution. Their presence and influence is restricted to few constituencies. MNM will breach DMK vote significantly even upto 4 to 5 percent in urban constituencies like Chennai, Coimbatore, Trichy, Madurai”.
Sriram Seshadri said “DMK will have to contest upto 200 constituencies. If DMDK and MNM are to join DMK will offload Congress, VCK and contest up to 170 seats. It will be a formidable combine. But BJP options are limited and strategically need to move about. BJP, PMK, DMDK, PK and TMC along with Rajini Kant support. It will have to share seats up to 120 to 140 constituencies. BJP should ensure that MNM not joining DMK led front at any cost and pray Congress is kicked out.
… If these two do not happen, the only option available is to follow Lok Sabha 2019 front which will cost all parties a bit but can give considerable edge against DMK. Even if Rajini Kant floats a party, there will be not a major change if it extends support to BJP. If not, he should support, campaign or give voice to BJP led alliance like what he did in 1996 elections.
Even if Rajini Kant floats a party, there will be not a major change if it extends support to BJP.
… AIADMK does not have a permanent vote bank like its rival DMK. Sasikala and Dinakaran factions already took away their supporters with votes. Present Ministers like Vijaya Bhaskar, Rajedra Balaji Mafoi Pandiya Rajan, Udaya Kumar can be taken to BJP camp with sweet talks. AIADMK lacks the support of youths and women. At a time when the DMK is trying to defeat the BJP with all its mites, AIADMK is betraying the BJP by stabbing its back”.
Grape wine sources say “DMK has finalized seat sharing formula. According to it, Congress will get 27 seats, MDMK 6, CPI and CPI (M) each 6, VCK 6,Konga Nadu Makkal Desiya Katchi 3, Indian Union Muslim League3, India Jananayaga Katchi 3, Manitha Neya Makkal Katchi 3 seat, totaling 63. DMK will contest 171 constituencies. Prashant Kishore’s I- PAC has identified safe constituencies for DMK also”. These details could not be cross checked with DMK.
BJP can cash in on its various welfare projects, farmer friendly laws, free cooking gas and toilet schemes, Mudra and others.
What Sri Ram Sehadri said is being echoed by most of the people whom this correspondent spoke. This is the ground reality. Will it reach Amit Shah’s ears before his reaches Tamil Nadu to have a better understanding the strength and weaknesses of the TN parties with inputs from his own intelligence sources?