By Narasimhan Vijayaraghavan
The loud debate in America post Biden-Trump debate on 27th June,2024 has now pivoted. Biden has been rescued from facing an onslaught from within and without that he must go. But the Covid-19 impact on him on 17th July,2024 may have again ignited the embers to a higher temperature.
The assassination attempt by the now killed 20 year old Thomas Matthew Ctooks has moved the needle irrefutably in favour of Donald J Trump, as the odds on favourite, on his way to the Oval Office, for a second term, in the Nov 5,2024 POTUS elections. Trump accepting the nomination in the RNC Convention on 18th July,2024, amidst huge fanfare was a powerful show of strength and Unity with a capital U. The debate on who will win at the hustings now seems to be done and dusted (?) since voters basically vote on feelings and emotions, as Malcolm Gladwell and Yuval Noah Harari concur.
In Indian general elections 2024 , Modi 3.0 was perceived as a done deal, even before the seven phase elections were announced. Of course, matters went overboard with the cacophony from Modi & Co that it would clear ‘chaar so paar’ (400 +). And the Exit polls went horribly worse . It turned out to be a Modi Miscalibration Moment.
Modi 3.0 is now a BJP led NDA coalition government, as BJP fell short by 32 seats of an outright party majority, unlike in 2014 and 2019. Yet, Modi did return as Prime Minister, emulating Jawaharlal Nehru’s record in 1952. The Victor was predicted, even if the vanquished’s performance against the run of play, has led them to behave as if they were the winners.
The chaar so paar which Modi failed to accomplish, the labour leader in Keir Starmer, comfortably achieved on July 4,2024, defeating the incumbent Conservatives, in office for 14 years, by 411:121 majority. Overwhelmingly, the opinion polls had predicted this result. And the Exit Polls in UK were spot on at 400 plus.
The repetitive and multiple opinion polls in the US of A have consistently indicated , thus far, a close race between Biden and Trump. But Trump takes it away in the five swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Remember that Trump beat Hilary Clinton in 2016 POTUS contest by 304 to 227 electoral college votes. Electoral College is a unique beast, peculiar to USA, where the candidate winning the popular vote could still lose the election.Since 198&, Republicans had become President despite losing the popular election vote count.
Democrats have lost the elections, upon failure to clear the Electoral College hurdle on more occasions. However, Electoral College route is not going away, as the US Constitution has been amended just 27 times ( last of them in 1992) since 1788. It can be ruled out for all practical purposes in the present polarised times with wafer thin majorities in Senate and/or House of Representatives, for either Democratic or Republican parties.
The Democrat Hilary Clinton was ahead of President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2016.
In 2020, though Josef R Biden won the popular vote too, his lead in the Electoral College, came up from his wafer thin majorities in the above cited swing States. It was a close call for Biden and not a th(r)umping win.
Biden gaffes are now legion. His age is showing up, as Father Time is marching relentlessly. The first and possibly the only debate this season on 27th June,2024 brutally exposed Biden’s tortured mental acuity. All his explanations as repeated travels to Europe and suffering cold did not wash. Mounting pressure on Biden to quit his candidacy commenced with New York Times Editotial and it was becoming a viral movement over Biden’s defiance, and suddenly surfaced this Trump assasination attempt.
And on 15th July,2024, as if timed to perfection, commenced the Republican National Convention, at Milvaukee in the State of Wisconsin. Ian Bremmer, who is a political scientist and president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading geopolitical risk advisory firm, compared the appearance of Trump before RNC, as if a Lazarus, from the miraculous story of Jesus brining him back to life!
Add all these potions, be it in numbers or chemistry or charisma, it would not require a political scientist or a pollster to predict a possible win for Donald Trump J Trump. Earlier, it was an election that was Biden’s to lose. Now, it is Trump’s to win. Trump has to simply turn up on chosen platforms. And utter that he was in it to win it to make America ‘ A more perfect Union’. He is sure to be inaugurated as POTUS on Jan 20,2025.
Notwithstanding the convicted felon status he is facing, possible sentencing and at least three more indictments related to 2020 elections and classified documents’ cases, July 13th,1024 may be the true turning or inflexion point to move the needle towards Trump, beyond retrievability for Biden.
No wonder Trump is ‘altered his prepared speech’ for the RNC meet in Milwaukee , in the wake of the assassination attempt. The other special invitees/speakers too also hurriedly tweaked their presentations to align with the expected ‘Unity’ theme’. It is now infectious.
Trump does need not be the polarised and divisive face, he has been to his base. He can comfortably elevate himself to the status of a Statesman, he may not be or is not. It is perception that pays not reality in electoral politics. He can truly play the actor he was in The Apprentice.
If Trump delivers a teleprompter driven speech on ‘A more Perfect Union’ as their Constitution conceived, on every single platform till Nov 5,2024, he should be home and dry. No matter how unified a message Biden delivers, as in 2020 or in his message from the Oval Office, while condemning the assassination attempt, the needle is unlikely to come back to where it was before 13th July, 2024, for a close or meaningful contest in POTUS elections. That is a given, as the sympathy factor sway in favour of Trump may become more entrenched, and not dissipate, before the voting commences in September 2024 itself, which is another uniqueness about the US election calendar.
(Writer is practicing advocate in the Madras High Court)
